Ketchikan, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

090
FXAK67 PAJK 152241
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
241 PM AKDT Thu May 15 2025

.SHORT TERM...A quick peak at satellite earlier today showed a
moist occluded front moving into our coast, with widespread but
light rain enveloping communities through the morning hours. As
mentioned in the overnight shift the southern Panhandle looked to
see heavier precip; QPF totals were adjusted accordingly. For the
most part, winds Thursday matched forecast expectations, with
satellite derived winds and observations indicated gale force for
Dixon Entrance and some areas along our coast. More details in
marine section. Todays system is supported by a shortwave trough
ejecting into the area helping push the triple point low north and
east,with the increased winds from this afternoon diminishing
overnight as the surface pressure gradient relaxes. For the most
part winds diminish Friday; however, there will be a southerly
push of moderate to fresh breezes impacting Lynn Canal, Chatham,
and Clarence through Friday afternoon. Touching on QPF, while a
very wet pattern for this time of year emerges for the central and
southern region, 24 hour QPF totals will remain under 1.5 inches
with the exception of Ketchikan where gages will likely report 2
inches from Thursday into Friday.


.LONG TERM...
Light precipitation lingers into Saturday morning diminishing
throughout the day. This allows for a brief break from the rain
late Saturday night into Sunday morning with ridging over the
panhandle. This break comes to an end as a low moves east across
the southern panhandle stalling west-southwest of POW. The focus
of this low will be winds increasing near Haida Gwaii into
Clarence Strait. Near Gale winds of 25 to 30 kts will develop
around this low with Gale force wind gusts. Total rain amounts
remain below an inch with ensembles showing less than a 60% chance
of receiving an inch of rain over the southern panhandle in 24
hours. The heaviest rain rates are expected Monday morning. During
this time, the northern part of the panhandle remains dry with
winds at or below 10 to 15 kts. Some differences in models show
the location of the low either moving slightly north, or
continuing to move southeast. If the low moves slightly more
north, more of the panhandle could receive rain. After the low
dissipates, light rain with breaks, will continue into mid to late
week next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Today`s flying weather has been impacted by the
recent frontal passage and the incoming embedded low tracking
north through the eastern gulf. Mainly high-end MVFR to low-end
VFR conditions have been reported from TAF sites today. These
lowered conditions were due to lowered CIGs and slightly reduced
VIS from the rain.

An exception to this is the far northern panhandle and along the
NE coast, where low-end VFR has been reported.

Going forward, expecting conditions like this to continue into
the evening with some slight lowering overnight. That being said,
mainly MVFR to low-end VFR is still expected.

Breezy & gusty SFC winds will last into the evening hours for
southern panhandle and central & southern. LLWS magnitudes up to
35 knots at around 2k ft out of a southeasterly direction are
anticipated for those same general areas. LLWS and those gusty
winds will fade out overnight.

&&

.MARINE...Outside: A storm force low near 56N 158W and a triple
point low near 55N 138W continue to drive the impacts for our
area, with ASCAT passes indicating near-gale to gale force SSE
winds along the coast and a broad fetch of southwesterly winds in
the central gulf. Buoy 84 Thursday morning was dominated by fresh
ESE seas focused around 8ft/8 seconds and underlying southerly
swell 3ft/16s. Moving through the day fresh seas increasing to 11
to 13ft, shifting southerly. Early Friday the supporting winds
diminish, negating further fresh sea development, with
southwesterly swell filling in along the coast, likely around 6 to
9ft / 10 to 12 seconds. One wonders fruit the surf breaks would
bear along Chichagof Friday. Significant heights diminish through
Saturday.

Inside:Thursday north to easterly winds below fresh breezes have
impacted the northern Panhandle, with winds increasing as you move
along and south of Five Fingers, especially for Clarence Strait.
Here we expect strong breezes to continue through the late
afternoon, diminishing overnight as the pressure gradient relaxes.
With that said, current forecast reflects a southerly push of
moderate to fresh breezes impacting Lynn Canal, Chatham Strait and
Clarence Friday late morning into the afternoon.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-
     672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM....EAB
AVIATION...GFS
MARINE...AP

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